Coffee with GannFann

Friends of Gannfann!!

Dear Friends of Gannfann

 

A personal opportunity has presented itself and I regret to inform all of you that I will be taking some time off from my blog. Please feel free to use the blog and information within for your personal education, and you never know when I will stop by to say hello from time to time. I appreciate everyone’s time and dedication to the success of this blog and your attendance has never been overlooked. So until I return, keep an eye out for me….

 

For those that expressed an interest in the forecasting series, that is currently on hold. I will keep the emails or contact information for those that were interested and if or when it is released I will contact those wanted the series.

 

Thank you all for your support……

 

Happy Trading

 

Gannfann

Gone Ice Fishing!!

Friday:

 

The S&P could not create the momentum necessary to move into the 770 range, so prices held my 755-757 (758.29 actual) target and very close to my 11:00am time target. Prices went through a corrective move hitting my 1^st support target of 742 (742.46 actual within .46 cents) and knowing that 741.02 was a major low should have been a great long opportunity. Prices rallied off the support range since there was still strength in the move as I suggested in my commentary….

 

“Prices should reach the top for this initial advance so look for a possible turns near the 755-757 or if there is some momentum a top near 770-772.”

 

“We could see a corrective move as prices reach some important targets. There has been a three day rally so I would be looking for this to weaken near the targets, but this rally seems to have some strength. “

 

 

Today:

 

Prices are getting closer to the retracement price targets of 770-772 or it may extend to itself into the 800 range but this move to the upside is almost over on the short term. We have had an advance for some time so I believe that we will see prices go through a corrective move. This market will start to break again to the downside soon as prices begin to over reach. Traders need to understand that retracements give the best entries or exits depending on your strategy, but I am not saying that the primary trend is resuming again. Prices could break from the 770 or the 800 range and hold the 700 or 720 range on the corrective and still maintain the up trend since prices are over many important moving averages. So the jury is still out on how long the bear rally will last but this is to early to call.

 

Bulls: The risk to the upside is starting to increase as prices move into important ranges where prices could start to stall. The Bulls have had a pretty good move from the 666.79 low so traders must watch for weakness to set in. Prices should start to top out soon so traders need to be mindful of corrective moves and the strength of prices on the corrective moves.

 

Bears: The bears should get the short entry soon, but need to be prudent and realistic about the corrective target. How prices trade after the corrective move will give signs if the primary trend is starting again, but right now it is to early in the price movement to be sure. If prices could break the 740 range that would positive for the bears and a break of the 700 range would confirm that the primary may be resuming again, but that is a long way from there.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

770-772 2^nd resistance

761-762 1^st resistance

744-746 1^st support

732-734 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders need to watch out for the following ranges 770-772, 786 or the 800-802 range for possible turns. I will be away on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week on business, so will be unable to post but I will do my best to post a comment or two.

 

Gannfann

Three Day Counter Rally?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P rallied hard after taking a retracement into the 38% range hitting the low of 714.76. This is where traders paying attention could have used yesterday’s low price as a guide for an entry. Yesterdays low was 713.85, so knowing prior support and a retracement that is near the 712, so you now have support at 712-713.85!! Round 713.85 up and you have 714…and that’s within .76 cents!! This is the way traders think and how you must look at it for an entry. So if you know that you could see support at 712-714 and you wanted to ensure a trade execution than you need to be realistic and round up 1 or 2 points giving you an entry of 715 or 716!! Here are my comments…..

 

“Prices must gain strength in these ranges and a break of the 100dma would be bullish. If prices could hold the 38% retracement at the 710-712 range that would be a good sign for the bulls, since it may indicate greater strength.”

 

We held the 38% retracement along with the 50dma and the 100dma. Prices held the prior days low showing higher bottoms. Prices broke above the prior major swing low of 741 demonstrating strength of the move and commitment. This made sense why traders bought into the close for a continuation of the counter rally.

 

Today:

 

Prices should reach the top for this initial advance so look for a possible turns near the 755-757 or if there is some momentum a top near 770-772. This is where there is an important retracement. I do think that prices should be overextended at the 770-772 range and that could be reached by around the 11:00 timeframe.

 

Bulls: The bulls should continue to have a good day as prices extend the gains from the prior move. This move will begin to weaken soon but appear to have confirmed an uptrend for the time being. The S&P will again have to take a corrective move soon if we are to see the 800 range. I do think that this move could stall today so traders must be mindful of an overbought condition.

 

Bears: The Bears will get a possible short opportunity soon as traders take profits before the weekend and prices move into important resistance. Traders need to be mindful that the short term trend is up and have realistic downside targets. The technicals have improved on the long side so traders must plan for that. I do see that this trend could break to the downside but this may be early to see that occur yet.  

  

Support / Resistance:

 

770-772 2^nd resistance

754-757 1^st resistance

740-742 1^st support

720-722 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

We could see a corrective move as prices reach some important targets. There has been a three day rally so I would be looking for this to weaken near the targets, but this rally seems to have some strength.

 

Gannfann

I'm Standing at the Crossroads, Believe I'm Sinking Down!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P hit the 931.92 range topping out at the 100dma and tested the 100dma again near the close at 727.96. Since prices were only 6-8 points from my target it made sense that prices became overbought on the short term needing a corrective move.

 

“The bulls need to think of this move as a two to three day rally, followed by a corrective move. This corrective move must occur if the move has any chance of extending itself for any length of time.”

 

“There should be a corrective move or a retest that will happen very shortly. Prices need to hold important retracement on any corrective move if this move has any chance of continuing higher.” This is where we are today….

 

Today:

 

Prices should go through a corrective move but prices need to hold the 690 or 700 range. It is in these ranges that prices may clean up or strengthen. I had pointed out in the previous comments that prices need this corrective move if they have any chance of continuing higher. I need to clarify my comments, since I received some email that felt I was bullish on this market. This is not the case and as I had pointed out before, I still feel we will head into the 400 range in the future. I am bearish on this market but as a chartist I must advise my readers when prices attempt to create a bottom. This does not mean that it will be successful in doing so, only that there is a possibility. I do not feel that this rally (if it can hold the retracement) will last very long, since there will be a great deal of inventory and bad news applying pressure on the upside.

 

Bulls: The bulls need prices to hold the 690 or the 700 range if this move has any chance of moving higher. The 700 range is where the 50dma is on the 60min chart so that is important price point. Prices must gain strength in these ranges and a break of the 100dma would be bullish. If prices could hold the 38% retracement at the 710-712 range that would be a good sign for the bulls, since it may indicate greater strength.

 

Bears: The bears need to be mindful that prices may hold in the retracement range since the jury is still out if the new trend will last. It is normal to see these corrective moves backfill if they are to advance further, so this is what traders must evaluate today and let the price action tell you. I am still bearish so I wouldn’t be surprised if this move failed and we broke to retest the prior low or the 640 range, but I will let the price action tell me.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

738-740 2^nd resistance

728-730 1^st resistance

710-712 1^st support

700-703 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

This pattern is in a crucial point since prices are at a crossroads where they show or confirm the new pattern. So far the price action has been trading correctly under the circumstances, so this is normal to have prices backfill (to absorb sellers and attract new buyers) so they can advance higher.

 

Gannfann

Bear Rally? or Fake Out?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P rallied pretty hard off the open and never looked back. Prices did not go through a retracement or a very short retracement indicating a follow through for the day. Prices broke through the 700 target quickly that indicated a break. The down trend line and 50dma on the 60min was broken demonstrating a bullish trend.

 

“We could be seeing a change in trend to the upside being created but since it is early in its formation traders may want to first wait for a confirmation”

 

“I had stated in my commentary that we could be seeing a low on the short term and a good break over 700 could mean a move back to 740. The banking sector could be ready for a short term recovery because they seem oversold on the short term.”

 

“Let me make this clear that prices could hold the 660 range and not move into the 640 range, so traders need to look out for that possibility.” March 6^th….

 

“Prices could reach that range or stop shy of it maybe the 660-665 range and right now that could happen.” March 5^th ….. (low on March 6^th 666.79!!)

 

Today:

 

Prices should continue to extend the gains from the move yesterday as traders play off the momentum. Prices were overextend on the short term and broke through a 60min chart trend line and 50dma show a possible change of trend. This swing is in my opinion is a bear rally that could have some legs but has some major hurdles. The major swing low at 740 comes to mind and this was my target for this move. There should be a corrective move or a retest that will happen very shortly. Prices need to hold important retracement on any corrective move if this move has any chance of continuing higher.

 

Bulls:  The bulls will get some more upside but traders need to watch out for two prices ranges of 726-728 and 738-740 on the short term. The 740 price range will play a significant role since it was a major low and prices will have a hard time breaking that without a retracement or retest of the prior lows. . It does appear that the low is in on the short term but the bulls have some important prices to break. The bulls need to think of this move as a two to three day rally, followed by a corrective move. This corrective move must occur if the move has any chance of extending itself for any length of time.

 

Bears: The bears should let this move extend itself but they will get their entry soon near the noted resistance points. It is not yet clear if this move will lose all momentum and break hard again for a retest. I see this move exhausting itself very soon since it is close to the short term targets. It is not clear yet if prices will break the retracement or need a test of the prior low so watch the retracements from the swings for signs of weakness.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

738-741 2^nd resistance

726-728 1^st resistance

702-704 1^st support

689-691 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders need to watch out for a potential time turn at 10:25 or 11am were we could see a possible change.

 

Gannfann

Recovery Plan?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P was attempting a recovery absorbing selling pressure but having a hard time breaking into new highs. Prices went through a retracement but did not break the prior low, so a recovery may be occurring.

 

Today:

 

Prices have been attempting a recovery but there still appears to be a great deal of inventory for sale, pushing down the rallies. We could be seeing a change in trend to the upside being created but since it is early in its formation traders may want to first wait for a confirmation. Each rally has been sold into so far but as I had pointed out that we may be overextended on the short term. A break over the 700 range would be a position thing for the bulls, but traders need to watch the selling pressure that could step in near 700. I had stated in my commentary that we could be seeing a low on the short term and a good break over 700 could mean a move back to 740. The banking sector could be ready for a short term recovery because they seem oversold on the short term.

 

Bulls: The bulls need prices to break the 700 range or at least hold the retracement or prior low, if we are to get a recovery. Prices went through a pretty big retracement yesterday so that could indicate another test may be necessary.

 

Bears: The bears need to be mindful of their entries since we could be seeing a change in trend. Since we could be looking at a possible change the bears must be mindful of the targets and entries watching out for upside momentum. Traders must be mindful that the downside risk is increasing as prices attempt to establish a low.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

702-704 2^nd resistance

690-692 1^st resistance

677-679 1^st support

665-666 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

In my commentary I pointed out that prices may be attempting a recovery but traders must be mindful of the selling pressure. It is difficult for traders on the long side since there will still be inventories to sell but if funds are to average down or bet the upside this area and 640 would be the range they would fade into long positions. This will allow them to move out of positions that they may have at a much higher cost level.

 

Gannfann

Is the Water Warm? ....I'll Dip My Toe In!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P sold off from the open testing the 660 (666 .79 actual low) and prices rallied off those lows into the close as short covering.

 

Today:

 

Prices should attempt a retest of the prior lows of 660 again, since it appears that the rally into the close was short covering. The S&P should attempt another thrust at the prior lows testing the retracement levels of 640 and 660. I do think that we could see the low on this major swing occur today. Prices could reach the low of 660-663 near the time of 11:05 or 11:15 and I would look for a turn around those price or time turn.

 

Bulls: The market needs to finish this corrective move and traders looking on the long side need to look for signs of recovery. In my prior comments, I had mentioned that this market could be overextend and looking to recover. Traders do not want to be to early on this move but could test the waters near the support ranges, looking for the clean up. The bulls may want to start testing the waters with some trailing stops near the forecasted support ranges after the sellers are taken out.

 

Bears: The bears could see the market test the prior low and the retracement ranges of 640 and 660. It could be viewed that Friday’s action on the close was short covering for the weekend and weakness will set in today’s trading. Prices are looking overextended on the short term so this action we are seeing could be a final thrust before the recovery. I do feel if prices are to recover for the long side it must occur today. Bears need to be mindful here since this could begin a rally soon.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

718-720 2^nd resistance

700-702 1^st resistance

660-662 1^st support

652-654 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

The market could finish the down move today and I see a possible turn that may occur around the 11:05 or 11:15 time frame and could be near the 663 range. 

 

Gannfann

Stress Test?? ....ummmm.... I'm Stressed Out!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P broke right on the open and never looked back going to the prior low reaching the low of 677.93. Prices are moving closer to my target range where we could see a bounce of 640 or 660. Here are my comments…

 

“The very likely scenario is that prices will break to retest the prior lows and move into the major retracement ranges of 640 and 660.”

 

 

Today:

 

Prices should continue the decline as the market gets closer to the price target, we are getting very close to a short term bottom. In my video (that I was unable to upload…very likely user error) I pointed out that the reaction off these retracement ranges may be weak and should not last very long in time. I will make sure that this and other videos get loaded on the site today and this weekend. I pointed out that we are seeing huge volume to the downside and the scary part is that fear or panic selling hasn’t taken place yet. This should start near the apex of this new counter move. I will be creating several charts and videos this weekend that will give traders a more accurate picture of just how bad it is in this marketplace. My long term forecast for where we could see a bounce occur was 400, but this is not where I felt where the likely major low would occur. It is my contention that the S&P will create a 100% or (near) full retracement (just like 1929), so prices could move into the 180 to 200 range and possibly lower. This will be a long grinding distribution that should take around 5 years to complete. We should see a recovery attempt to come in soon as we get closer to important support.

 

Bulls: Prices are getting closer to a short term low and it does appear that we are seeing some signs of an oversold condition. The problem with many of these indicators is that they can become more oversold, so other tools must be used with them.  Prices could clean up very soon but traders on the long side need to watch their time and price entry since prices could hit the 660 or 640 range. That is a major difference and watching the price action will give you the signal.

 

Bears: The S&P has been selling off for some time and traders need to know that this should end soon. Look for a possible cleanup or signs of capitulation as prices find some support. Let me make this clear that prices could hold the 660 range and not move into the 640 range, so traders need to look out for that possibility.

 

 

Support / Resistance:

 

738-740 2^nd resistance

718-720 1^st resistance

671-672 1^st support

660-663 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Watch for a possible turn at 10:05am near the important price range of 660 and 663.

 

Gannfann

Counter Move and a Coffee Break!!

 

 

 

 

Yesterday:

 

Prices went through a counter rally move hitting a retracement off the forecasted 690 low. In my commentaries I wanted to stress the fact that prices were attempting a recovery but prices could move into the 660 range. I felt it was important to stress that we are moving into a retracement and prices would attempt a counter rally. Prices exceeded my target of 720 by four point by looking at the retracement (to refine the forecast) the 724 range was understandable. Traders seeing prices move into the 38% retracement range should have realized that weakness could come in and the primary trend could make a final thrust to the major retracement range. This is what I believe we are seeing here. Due to time constraints and matters out of my control I could not do a video yesterday but created a chart to show yesterdays counter move. I will try to create one later today….

 

Today:

 

The S&P could retest the prior low of 690 and we will see if the counter move holds the retracement of the 2 day move to continue the rally. I do not believe that this will occur but traders will watch those ranges for signs of strength. The very likely scenario is that prices will break to retest the prior lows and move into the major retracement ranges of 640 and 660. If prices try to hold today the mid range of the price movement we could be looking for a break for tomorrow. We could be looking at a two day decline with a clean up at the key retracement ranges.

 

Bulls: Traders that wanted to play aggressive on the long side could have played the 692 bounce with a trailing stop for a move into the price retracement. Prices should go through a corrective move as prices attempt to create a bottom near the important retracement range. The bulls will have their day soon but trades in this range can hold more risk because we are between a swing and prices could retest the prior lows and break them. Soon the bulls will have their moment as this trend begins starts to change, we just don’t want to be to early to this party!!

 

Bears: Prices should start to move in the bears favor today and possibly tomorrow but traders must be ready for sign of capitulation since prices should hold the major retracement level of 640. Prices could reach that range or stop shy of it maybe the 660-665 range and right now that could happen. I did say that this move would be quick and we have seen that occur, but we could see a bullish recovery next week, but this is still dependant on how these next two days play out.

 

Support / Resistance:

723-725 1^st resistance

698-700 1^st support

688-690 2^nd support

666-668 3^rd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders should see prices move into the prior lows and test the major retracement ranges.

 

Gannfann

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Major Retracement?

Yesterday:

 

Prices continued the decline holding the forecasted low of 690 (692.30 actual) and bounced off the lows moving into the 711 range.

 

“Traders need to watch for some continued weakness but prices are getting overextended on the short term and we could see prices attempt a recovery at the 690 range.”

 

Today:

 

Prices could be forming a short term Symmetrical Triangle on the 15min chart, so prices may hold the high line on the triangle at 708-710. Traders need to watch out for a break of the formation since this is a continuation pattern. Of course the direction is on the downside so a break of yesterday prior low would confirm that. Prices are trying to complete this long term move but it still has further to go. The market should continue the decline as prices create counter moves, but these rallies are getting sold into. We are starting to move into a major area of support as prices move toward a major retracement. When prices complete this move (getting very close) we should have a major rally that could extend into the 850 to 900 range. This of course will depend on the initial momentum created off the low but should last for some time. I will create a video showing some of the possibilities that may occur.

 

Bulls: The bulls need prices to break over the 710 range that will take out the prior high and the pattern. A move over the 720 would be a good sign for the bulls but the traders need to understand that we still have further to go on the downside.

 

Bears: The bears need to understand that the primary trend starting to end soon (for the time being) as prices move into the retracement ranges. The market should move to the downside on the short term but traders need to understand that the bounce off this retracement may be substantial. This will be the last major rally for some time but since the rally of the other retracement at 820 did not last long this move may be equal or less in time. This move looks like it is trying to finish up and the momentum is starting to shift to the bulls. Just don’t get caught up in the short squeeze that could occur around the 640 or 660 range.  

 

Support / Resistance:

 

718-720 2^nd resistance

708-710 1^st resistance

689-891 1^st support

680-682 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders on both sides need to be careful in these ranges since it could be easy to get caught on the wrong side.

 

Gannfann