Coffee with GannFann

Happy New Year!!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P held the prior day’s close at 870 and had a move into the 891 range. Prices had closed above the 50dma and it is testing the 900 range.

 

Today:

 

Prices continued from the bounce off the lows of the support range where we are coming into some important resistance. I am seeing divergence in the MACD on the 60 minute chart and that is a negative for the bulls. The RSI is nearing the overbought range and that is a negative. For those that have not learned about divergence I will explain what that is. If you create a chart using the MACD indicator it should (for the most part) mimic the trend with rising bottoms in an up trend or lower highs in a down trend. If you look at the 60 minute you can see the trend move up with higher bottoms, but on the MACD you are getting several lower highs signaling a difference (diverging from the trend). This is a negative because there is a lack of confirmation of increased momentum. This of course is dependant on the MACD remaining unchanged and not breaking its downtrend line. This can be a very powerful tool if properly used but does rely on the price action and the MACD to move in opposite directions. I will try to post a chart later today.  

 

As prices move into the resistance range of the prior resistance of 900-904 range we could see some weakness set in here. If we get a break above the 906 range we should see a move to 918-920 but I have a feeling we may break before that. I think that the economic picture will get weaker. Personal and business spending will decrease along with consumption. This will continue to occur and when businesses reduce spending there will be ripples everywhere including employment, commercial real estate and corporate earnings. 

 

Support / Resistance:

 

918-920 2^nd resistance

900-902 1^st resistance

886-888 1^st support

871-873 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Prices should break to the downside soon as prices come into resistance, so I still have a bearish bias. The only way I will become bullish is a break of the 920 range. This would indicate to me a commitment to the long side (on the short term) and a potential move to 1000. Of course the break of the 920 range will be important if will are to see that kind of move.

 

***  I want to wish all of you a safe and Happy New Year!! *** 

Easy on the drinks!! I'm Gonna need you all back here next year!!  :)

 

Gannfann

Coming soon..... A Charting Outlook of the NASDQ!!

I will be creating a chart of the NASDQ and will give my analysis of that market. Since the NASDQ helped bring the DOW and S&P into new highs this will be helpful to see the short term and Long term outlooks. 

Santa's got a brand new bag

Yesterday:

 In the chart you can see that prices retested the prior support lows and bounced into the close.

 

Today:

 

Prices need to break the 850-852 range if we are to see a retest of the prior lows. In the chart it shows the major support low that must be broken if prices are to break lower. Prices could try to make another attempt at the highs here but of course the resistance (that is noted in the chart) must be broken. If prices break this line we could see prices move to the 886-888 range or depending on momentum the 898-900 range.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

898-900 2^nd resistance

886-888 1^st resistance

868-870 1^st support

850-852 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Prices have had the support range so far and it has not signaled a break of the up trend just yet. This move will exhaust itself soon but time is not yet up. Traders must be wary of the January effect when those that have sold to lock in their losses, come back in the market. It is still my contention that the funds will start to liquidate positions and continue to put downside pressure on the markets.

 

Gannfann

This is a chart of a 5 Min. chart of the S&P 500 which gives a pretty good visual picture of yesterdays trading and what the potential future moves may be. You will notice that there is strong prior support at the 856-857 range and if traders just looked at the prior trading action they would have been ready for the late day rally after prices reached the 857 low. This may seem rather elementary but in theory it  contains great value and powerful entry and exit opportunities.

You can see that there is major support at the 850-852 range and traders that may be short need to watch out for a potential rally to the up side. There are several resistance points that can be seen here on the chart and if we are to see a rally it should start here. Prices must rally with strength here if it is to have a chance for a break out of the 918 range. Of course a break of the 920 range would be bullish and the move would last for some time.

I'm Back.... I must have been a good boy... No coal..just toys!!!

Friday:

 

Trading lacked any main direction and held the prior low of 852 so the correction is not confirmed yet. Prices have held an up trend line on the 60 min. and 870 is an important range to hold.

 

Today:

 

Prices should begin an aggressive move and my bet is to the downside. A break of the 856 and 870 range would confirm that prices are breaking out of a trend line or pattern. My feeling is that prices should start to resume the primary trend again and selling could restart again. Traders need to watch the prior highs of 916-918, because any break of that would be bullish. Prices are currently under the 50 dma so we have a bearish bias here and we should get a clear direction soon.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

898-900 2^nd resistance

886-888 1^st resistance

850-852 1^st support

840-842 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Look for prices to make a big move today and my bet is to the downside. Prices need to break the prior low of 850-852 if we are going to resume the primary trend.

 

Gannfann

Dr. Santa....All I want for Christmas is.... A Blog...Spellchecker...& A Clue!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P sold off at the open and did not break the forecast high of 886-888 (887.37 actual). The lower trend line was broken during the trading day but it does not mean that the trend it broken just yet.

  

Today:

 

Since prices broke through the lower trend line of a ascending triangle, this is indicating a more bearish bias. Prices must break the 818 range to confirm that the primary trend will resume again. Prices could find some support near the 850-852 range because of the prior low and prices must break that range. The S&P has closed under the 50dma and has traded away from it and we could be seeing the start of a corrective move. Confirmation is important but we could see some more weakness here if we break the 850 range. I do not believe that the worst is over but we have been in a holding pattern because of option expiration and the holiday’s.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

898-900 2^nd resistance

886-888 1^st resistance

852-854 1^st support

838-840 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

We should see a continued sell off as the primary trend starts to come into play, but traders need to watch the prior bottom of 851-852 range for a potential bounce. A break of the 818-820 range will be very positive for the bears.

 

*** I will not be posting tomorrow (but may post a chart or video). I will be taking some much needed time off tomorrow and Christmas Day. I will be around to comment and chat through the holiday break. I will also try to post a chart or two during the holiday and  will continue to answer comments, emails and charts. I will be taking some of my time off to work on the series and to work on the blog site, so I guess I’m not really taking time off…lol ***

 

I want to wish all of you a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!! May you and your families have a blessed holiday season!!

 

Gannfann

Low Fat Cookies for Santa?

Friday:

 

The S&P sold off and closed right at the trend line and at the 887.88 range. Prices closed under the 50dma and it has been confined to a tight trading range ready for a break.

 

Today:

 

I have included a chart from the TA section because I was unable to upload the video I did this morning and will work on the problem later. This chart and summary does contain today general outlook as prices could find a little strength on the short term because of the trend line and moving average on the 60 minute chart.

 

Support / Resistance:

916-918 2^nd resistance

903-905 1^st resistance

886-888 1^st support

871-873 1^st support

 

Notes:

Keep in mind that prices could make another attempt to the prior highs based on prices hitting the support range near the close on Friday. The three important reasons for a bounce at the 886 range. They are the trend line, the 50dma on the 60 min. and the important support at 886-888. We will see a break soon as prices move toward the apex.

 

ASCENDING TRIANGLE

This is a recent chart of the S&P on a 60 minute showing some of the most recent action. You can see that prices have been holding a trading range and prices are heading into the apex of the pattern. As this pattern gets tighter a break out of the pattern is inevitable, and depending on the prior action would be bearish or bullish depending on the prior trend. Prices have been in a bearish sell off for some time and this pattern is attempting a recovery. This is normally a bearish pattern because the prior trend was down but a break above the horizontal line of 916-918 with volume would negate that pattern and would be bullish on the short-term.

This is very likely a bearish pattern that should break down very soon (like Monday or Tuesday). Keep in mind that prices may make a last attempt at the 916-918 range before the failure, but the odds are that it breaks down soon. A break of the bottom trend line would be very negative and prices could start a retest of the prior lows.

Gannfann

Thank You Santa!! ...For Gannfann's New Blog!!

Yesterday:

The S&P could not break out of the prior high of 916-918 range topping out at 911.02 and breaking down into a corrective move to a low of 877.44.  Prices closed under the 50dma and this looked like a failure of the price action to close 3 days above the 50dma or break to new highs. Prices closed under the 50dma and this looked like a failure of the price action to close 3 days above the 50dma or break to new highs.

Today:

 

We should see some continued weakness here and I have called for a change in trend today around the 10am timeframe so we will see.  Today is option expiration day so there could be some volatility and good movements between the strikes. I have stated several times the important price ranges here for the bears and the bulls, so let’s just review one more time.

 

For the Bulls     

• Prices should hold above the 50dma (for 3 days) and break the 918-920 to confirm the continuation of the counter trend bull rally. If prices hold some support soon and gain strength this could mean that this corrective move is just another higher bottom forming (this is less likely).

For the Bears   

• Prices need to continue to weaken and break the much important 818-820 range. This would break several of the prior low bottoms that have been created on the intraday chart. If prices start the break through this range a very likely target would be the prior lows as prices would look to stabilize again near the major low.

Support / Resistance:

902-904 1^st resistance

886-888 1^st resistance

869-871 1^st support

855-857 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Prices should continue the corrective move as it attempts to retest the prior lows. Bulls need to see prices recover in the 850 range and hold it.

 

I would like to welcome all of you to our new site!! I think it will help me keep in touch with all of you and it has a much better look and functionality. The other blog site was very hard to manage and lacked many tools to make my job easier. Everyone’s comments will appear right away so it will be easier for posters to talk to each other and quicker for me to reply. 

 

There is a chat feature which I will setup to allow all of you to exchange ideas with each other and I will setup times that I will join all of you for questions. I am not sure which chat interface I will be using because I want it to be site specific and have a good platform.

 

There is a tip jar feature in the upper corner for those of you that would like to contribute to the site…… No pressure there….

 

On the other blog I was unable to upload video and embed it on the page and I think this feature is a major upgrade. This will make it easier for me to put a commentary and video together in one presentation, which will happen in the future after the forecasting series is finished.

 

I will redirect the page very likely will be the same http://blog.stockmarketharmony.combut for the time being please use the link at the other blog….

 

In the future there will be an area that I will discuss the advanced concepts  outlined in the series and those that have taken the series will be able to ask questions.

 

 

I want to welcome any new visitors to this site and thank all of you that have given me your kind words of appreciation. You all have been instrumental in this blog success and would not exist without your dedication or support.

Thank you and I wish all of you and your family a safe and happy holiday season.

 

Patrick  (Gannfann)

I Brake For Reindeer!!!!

Yesterday:

Prices could not break through the prior high and my forecasted resistance at 918 (918.85 actual). The S&P went through a slight corrective move near the end of trading and prices had a tight trading range.

Today:

We had been getting a tight trading range as prices are going through some indecision but this is a typical type of reactive move. I have called for a change in trend for the December 19th so look for signs today of the general direction. Until prices break the 918 range the bias should be to the downside since we are starting to see a stalling action near the high. Since the video has outlined the possibilities here, hopefully it has made the possible outcomes here much clearer.  Keep in mind that the 50dma at 900 can play a role today and a break or close under that today would be good for the bears. We should see a pretty good move soon as we get closer to my target date and time.

Support / Resistance:

930-932 2nd resistance
918-920 1st resistance
886-888 1st support
869-871 2nd support

Notes:

Keep in mind that we have should get a change of trend tomorrow and my guess would be to the downside, but today’s movement will help to confirm it.

Gannfann

 

Can you get Dasher off the Roof!! He's been Drinking the Egg Nog again!!

Yesterday:

The S&P held the prior support range and retested the prior 916-918 high. Prices had been creating higher bottoms and broke through the 50dma.

Today:

Prices reached an important price point in yesterdays trading when it tested the prior high of 916-918, so this of course will create some resistance. There should be a slight corrective move and prices should hold the 886-888 range or the 50dma at 900-902 so traders should watch that area for any signs of strength for the short term. I am seeing a change in trend that could occur on the December 19th   (and could occur around 10am), so traders should watch for possible turns near that date and near a possible price points. The Bulls need prices to hold and break the prior high and we should see if prices have the strength to continue. Prices do have the ability to reach the 977-980 range where we could top out, but of course this depends on the strength of the move. Bears are aware from the video what to expect here as the bulls attempt to come in and sustain the rally. After the corrective move today prices should (if Bullish) gain strength, hold the important support lows, the 50dma and break the prior highs. If these things happen prices could top out near the 944-946 range, this will depend on how quickly or if we break the prior highs. If the bull continues I do see prices breaking at the 982-984 range on December 19th, (this depends greatly on the strength of the breakout, just like all patterns). If the retest of the prior high lacks momentum we should see prices top earlier near the 944-946 range. This move should exhaust itself soon but traders must allow for the blow off of the counter rally.

Support / Resistance:

930-932 2nd resistance
918-920 1st resistance
886-888 1st support
869-871 2nd support

Notes:

These move needs strength for the bulls if it has any chance of a big move. Please keep in mind the important support ranges and what a break of those will mean. I am glad many of you enjoyed the videos!!

Gannfann

http://www.screencast.com/t/bGcXKCN9S     *** Part 1 ***

http://www.screencast.com/t/9LeXo1Dvd        *** Part 2 ***

http://www.screencast.com/t/GRi9Czk4           *** Part 3 ***

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